By BILL DEANE
When the Crier asked me to submit my annual Baseball Hall of Fame election forecast, my first reaction was "why?" After all, my prediction for the 2000 election-published in the November 24, 1999 issue of this paper-had gone down swinging. I had said that Carlton Fisk would make it in his second try (he did), but that Tony Perez would "fall tantalizingly short" (he didn't, winning election with ten votes to spare). And that was my third mistake in four years!

Maybe the Crier is relying on my overall track record. I've been at this for 19 years, during which time there were 42 candidates within 10% either way of being elected (i.e., who wound up receiving between 65-85% of the vote). Even with the three recent misses, I have gone 35-7 (.833) in correctly predicting which of those 42 would or would not make it. Let's start with a review of the voting process. Members of the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) do the voting. Each Fall, ballots are distributed to beat-writers who have been BBWAA members for ten years or more. The ballots list eligible candidates in alphabetical order, instructing voters to choose up to ten players (the average voter selects about six). Eligible candidates include men who played in at least ten seasons in the majors, the last of which was not less than five nor more than 20 years prior to the election (the latter rule has sometimes been ignored). The ballots are to be returned by the end of the year. Any candidate being named on at least 75% of the ballots is elected to the Hall; anyone garnering less than 5 percent of the vote is dropped from further consideration. This year's announcement is slated for Jan. 16.

The 2000 ballot included 15 players who won't be on the 2001 version: Fisk and Perez, who were elected; and 13 others who were dropped from future consideration for failing to reach the 5 percent-cutoff. These men amassed a total of 863 votes in 2000, which theoretically could be redistributed to the 15 returning candidates and the new ones in 2001.

This year's rookies figure to capture those freed-up votes and more. The top newcomers on the 2001 ballot are Dave Winfield, Kirby Puckett, and Don Mattingly. Winfield, a 12-time All Star and seven-time Gold Glover, amassed 3110 hits and 1833 RBI. Puckett earned ten All-Star picks and four Gold Gloves in his abbreviated career, which saw him bat .318 lifetime and average 192 hits a year, a record. Other first-year candidates include 1988 NL MVP Kirk Gibson, four-time 20-game winner Dave Stewart, Gold Glove second sacker Lou Whitaker, 1987 NL Cy Young Award-winner Steve Bedrosian, and catcher Lance Parrish, whose credentials resemble Gary Carter's, but whose voter support won't.

I look for Winfield to get the nod for first-time enshrinement with about 15 votes to spare, but Puckett to fall short by a similar margin. And Mattingly, touted as a leading contender, won't even come close.

The top returning candidates are Jim Rice, who received 52% of the vote last year, and Carter, who got 50%. Through age 33, Rice had a .303 lifetime average with 2163 hits and 351 homers, and appeared to be well on his way to the Cooperstown-ticket numbers of 3000 and 500. Three years later he was through, far short of those milestones. Carter ranks among the best catchers of all time, with 324 homers, 11 All-Star selections, and three Gold Gloves. The two should switch places, but stay around the 50 percent mark.

Behind Rice and Carter will be Mattingly, near the 40 percent plateau. The Yankee first baseman enjoyed a six-year stretch as one of the game's most productive hitters, but back problems reduced him to mediocrity by the time he was 30. Nonetheless, his final numbers are a close match for Puckett's: 1783 games, 2304 hits, 207 homers, 1085 RBI, and a .318 average for Kirby, 1785-2153-222-1099-.307 for Donnie. Puckett's strong finish, and his post-season exposure, will spell the difference. Goose Gossage, Steve Garvey, and Bruce Sutter will follow in the 30-40% range. Gossage earned 310 saves and nine All-Star selections. Garvey was a good but overrated player, comparable to another first baseman, Cecil Cooper, who failed to get a single vote in his only Hall of Fame try. Sutter recorded 300 saves and a 2.84 ERA.

In the 20-30% bracket will be Jack Morris (254-186 but never a sub-three ERA), Dale Murphy (whose two MVPs highlight a checkered resume), Tommy John, Jim Kaat, and Dave Parker (2712 hits, 1493 RBI, three Gold Gloves, and an MVP during a roller-coaster career). Among left-handers, John (288) and Kaat (283) rank fifth and sixth all-time in victories, with Kaat adding a record 16 Gold Gloves.

Ranking in the 'teens will be Bert Blyleven (287 wins, 60 shutouts, 3701 strikeouts), Luis Tiant, Dave Concepcion, and Keith Hernandez. And, staying alive in the 5-10% range will be Ron Guidry, Gibson, and Stewart.

Nobody else on the 2001 ballot figures to quite make the 5 percent cut, although Whitaker, Bedrosian, and Parrish, and perhaps John Kruk and Howard Johnson, will get some nominations. There will be other vote-getters, too; the results rarely fail to include at least one frivolous vote for the likes of Ron Darling or Jim Deshaies.

What about future Hall of Famers? Of those men on the 2001 ballot, Puckett and Carter will eventually make it to Cooperstown, while Rice, Garvey, Gossage, Mattingly, Morris, Murphy, and Blyleven also have outside shots. If Pete Rose can ever gain reinstatement, he certainly would gain election, probably in his second try. That's not likely to happen as long as Bud Selig is Commissioner, however. "I was a friend of Bart Giamatti's," Selig once told me. "I respected his decision, and I haven't seen anything that would cause me to change it."

For the year 2002, Ozzie Smith, Andre Dawson, and Alan Trammell are the biggest new names slated for the ballot. In 2003, Eddie Murray, Ryne Sandberg and Brett Butler will head the list. The next year, it's Paul Molitor, Dennis Eckersley, Lee Smith, Joe Carter, and Dennis Martinez. And 2005 will include Wade Boggs, Tim Raines, Willie McGee, and Darryl Strawberry, if he doesn't return before then. Any ten-year player active in '00 who does not return next year (Will Clark and Orel Hershiser, for two) will become eligible in 2006.

Among ten-year players active in 2000, I would consider only nine as virtual shoo-ins for eventual election. These are Cal Ripken, Rickey Henderson, Ken Griffey, Jr., Tony Gwynn, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, Mark McGwire, and Frank Thomas. I would be shocked if fewer than eight of these make it.

Next come players I rank anywhere from "good bets" to "possibilities": Albert Belle, Jeff Bagwell, Ivan Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, Rafael Palmeiro, Tom Glavine, Roberto Alomar, Juan Gonzalez, Sammy Sosa, Harold Baines, Mike Mussina, Jose Canseco, Fred McGriff, Barry Larkin, Bernie Williams, David Cone, Larry Walker, Kenny Lofton, and John Franco. It is hazardous to speculate on players with less than ten years' service. After a few seasons in the bigs, such players as Dick Allen, Cesar Cedeqo, and Fred Lynn looked like sure-fire Hall of Famers, but the only way they will get in now is to buy a ticket.

Bill Deane, who lives in Cooperstown, has had articles on Hall of Fame elections published in several publications, including Sporting News.