The GEIS was undertaken to determine the area's capacity for future growth, but it does not answer one of the questions on many people's minds - has the area reached its carrying capacity for tourists?

"It is clear that tourism has many positive economic impacts that serve the Cooperstown area well," the GEIS states. "This has been well-documented by various county tourism studies. What is missing from tourist related planning information and documents is a clear understanding of what the tourist-capacity of the area is. Much of the data needed to complete such an analysis does not exist yet."

An area's tourism carrying capacity is the maximum number of people who can use a site without unacceptable alteration in the physical environment, without an unacceptable decline in the quality of experience gained by visitors, and without an unacceptable adverse impact on society, economy, and the culture of the area.

But without the necessary data, Stolzenberg and her staff have not been able to address whether the area has reached its capacity for tourism, but did determine the following:

• there are not enough local accommodations for the number of tourists currently visiting the area;

• total visitor spending in the county in 2000 was more than $137 million and generated almost $4.5 million in sales and bed tax revenues

• the region has not adequately assessed or planned for a tourism industry to ensure that it is compatible with available resources and community goals;

• tourism-based businesses contribute about 27 percent of the area's economy and 1,800 jobs during the season, but most are likely part-time and not well-paid,

• there has not yet been a process to involve residents in evaluating or determining what level of tourist activity would be acceptable;

• the village is at or close to reaching its capacity for providing water, sewer and parking; and

• numerous environmental limitations exist throughout the region.

The positive impacts of tourism, if well planned and controlled can include economic benefits, conservation of important natural areas, archeological and historic sites, preservation of character and improvement of infrastructure. In the study area, the GEIS found that the benefits are primarily economic, but that tourism activities have not funded infrastructure or transportation improvements made recently.

Negative impacts of tourism often outweigh the positive ones, especially, as is the case in Otsego County, when there is an absence of strong planning for tourism growth. The GEIS identified the following negative impacts: increased price of land and housing, increased transportation system demands and costs, seasonal under-employment, and unemployment issues, low paying jobs, increased congestion, increased pressure on infrastructure, loss of rural character, open space and agriculture when areas are built up and conflict and community divisiveness.

In 1994 the county produced a Long Range Tourism Development Plan which is currently being updated, but does not recognize the need to involve the community and to balance tourism with available infrastructure. The emphasis of the plan is primarily on ways to market the area, increase tourism and educate businesses and resident about the positive impacts of tourism. It does not analyze or recommend strategies to mitigate any potential impacts, nor does it analyze the capacity of the area for more tourists.

At the same time the county and others are promoting tourism, many local conditions are not conducive to increasing levels of tourism, the GEIS states.

There needs to be a comprehensive tourist plan that includes a full market survey, a survey of tourist facilities and services, a market analysis and a determination of tourist facility and infrastructure needs. Foremost, the GEIS states, is the establishment of the tourist carrying capacity. "Only with this information can the residents, decision makers and businesses in the area realistically plan for and balance tourist growth.

"What is lacking in the area is a cooperatively developed plan that analyzes and balances economic development, future growth and tourism so that the overall vision is reached," the GEIS states.